MathDB
Erasing random numbers on a blackboard

Source: ICMC 2023 Round 2 P3

March 1, 2023
ICMCcollege contestsprobabilitycombinatoricsrandom process

Problem Statement

The numbers 1,2,,n1, 2, \dots , n are written on a blackboard and then erased via the following process: [*] Before any numbers are erased, a pair of numbers is chosen uniformly at random and circled. [*] Each minute for the next n1n -1 minutes, a pair of numbers still on the blackboard is chosen uniformly at random and the smaller one is erased. [*] In minute nn, the last number is erased.
What is the probability that the smaller circled number is erased before the larger?
Proposed by Ethan Tan