MathDB
Expected length of a dance party

Source: Alibaba Global Math Competition 2021, Problem 1

July 4, 2021
expected valuecombinatorics

Problem Statement

In a dance party initially there are 2020 girls and 2222 boys in the pool and infinitely many more girls and boys waiting outside. In each round, a participant is picked uniformly at random; if a girl is picked, then she invites a boy from the pool to dance and then both of them elave the party after the dance; while if a boy is picked, then he invites a girl and a boy from the waiting line and dance together. The three of them all stay after the dance. The party is over when there are only (two) boys left in the pool.
(a) What is the probability that the party never ends?
(b) Now the organizer of this party decides to reverse the rule, namely that if a girl is picked, then she invites a boy and a girl from the waiting line to dance and the three stay after the dance; while if a boy is picked, he invites a girl from the pool to dance and both leave after the dance. Still the party is over when there are only (two) boys left in the pool. What is the expected number of rounds until the party ends?