MathDB
Lies and randomness the island

Source: KoMaL A. 874

March 12, 2024
probabilitycombinatoricskomalprobability games

Problem Statement

Nyihaha and Bruhaha are two neighbouring islands, both having nn inhabitants. On island Nyihaha every inhabitant is either a Knight or a Knave. Knights always tell the truth and Knaves always lie. The inhabitants of island Bruhaha are normal people, who can choose to tell the truth or lie. When a visitor arrives on any of the two islands, the following ritual is performed: every inhabitant points randomly to another inhabitant (indepently from each other with uniform distribution), and tells "He is a Knight" or "He is a Knave'". On sland Nyihaha, Knights have to tell the truth and Knaves have to lie. On island Bruhaha every inhabitant tells the truth with probability 1/21/2 independently from each other. Sinbad arrives on island Bruhaha, but he does not know whether he is on island Nyihaha or island Bruhaha. Let pnp_n denote the probability that after observing the ritual he can rule out being on island Nyihaha. Is it true that pn1p_n\to 1 if nn\to\infty?
Proposed by Dávid Matolcsi, Berkeley