Lies and randomness the island
Source: KoMaL A. 874
March 12, 2024
probabilitycombinatoricskomalprobability games
Problem Statement
Nyihaha and Bruhaha are two neighbouring islands, both having inhabitants. On island Nyihaha every inhabitant is either a Knight or a Knave. Knights always tell the truth and Knaves always lie. The inhabitants of island Bruhaha are normal people, who can choose to tell the truth or lie. When a visitor arrives on any of the two islands, the following ritual is performed: every inhabitant points randomly to another inhabitant (indepently from each other with uniform distribution), and tells "He is a Knight" or "He is a Knave'". On sland Nyihaha, Knights have to tell the truth and Knaves have to lie. On island Bruhaha every inhabitant tells the truth with probability independently from each other. Sinbad arrives on island Bruhaha, but he does not know whether he is on island Nyihaha or island Bruhaha. Let denote the probability that after observing the ritual he can rule out being on island Nyihaha. Is it true that if ?Proposed by Dávid Matolcsi, Berkeley