MathDB
Going Extinct :(

Source: KöMaL A. 832

October 11, 2022
combinatoricsprobabilitykomal

Problem Statement

Assume that the number of offspring for every man can be 0,1,,n0,1,\ldots, n with with probabilities p0,p1,,pnp_0,p_1,\ldots,p_n independently from each other, where p0+p1++pn=1p_0+p_1+\cdots+p_n=1 and pn0p_n\neq 0. (This is the so-called Galton-Watson process.) Which positive integer nn and probabilities p0,p1,,pnp_0,p_1,\ldots,p_n will maximize the probability that the offspring of a given man go extinct in exactly the tenth generation?