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game, probabilistically increasing capital

Source: VJIMC 2008 2.4

June 17, 2021
combinatoricsgameprobabilitygambler ruinprobability gamesProbability Combinatorics

Problem Statement

We consider the following game for one person. The aim of the player is to reach a fixed capital C>2C>2. The player begins with capital 0<x0<C0<x_0<C. In each turn let xx be the player’s current capital. Define s(x)s(x) as follows: s(x):={xif x<1Cxif Cx<11otherwise.s(x):=\begin{cases}x&\text{if }x<1\\C-x&\text{if }C-x<1\\1&\text{otherwise.}\end{cases}Then a fair coin is tossed and the player’s capital either increases or decreases by s(x)s(x), each with probability 12\frac12. Find the probability that in a finite number of turns the player wins by reaching the capital CC.